December 2025 Boise Real Estate Market Update: What November's Numbers Actually Mean for Relocators
- Sarah Breck
- Dec 23, 2025
- 7 min read
Published: December 2025 | Reading Time: 12 minutes
The Fed Cut Rates Three Times—So Why Didn't Mortgage Rates Drop This Market Update?
If you've been watching the news, you know the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times this year. THREE TIMES. And yet, mortgage rates are sitting at roughly 6.19%—basically the same as they were back in September before all these cuts started.
What's going on? Let me break it down in a way that actually makes sense.
Understanding the Fed Rate vs. Mortgage Rate Disconnect
The Federal Reserve just completed their third rate cut of the year, dropping their benchmark rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Since September alone, they've reduced rates by almost two full percentage points.
You'd think mortgage rates would follow suit, right? That's how it's supposed to work.
Except they didn't.
Mortgage rates are currently averaging 6.19%—essentially unchanged from September, and in some cases, slightly higher.
Why the Gap?
Here's what most people don't realize: the Fed only controls short-term rates—the overnight lending rates between banks. Think of it as the wholesale price of money in the banking system.
Mortgage rates, on the other hand, are long-term rates (we're talking 30-year commitments here). These are set by regular investors in the bond market who trade mortgage-backed securities daily.
Those investors aren't just looking at what the Fed does today—they're trying to predict:
Future inflation trends
Economic stability
Job market conditions
Policy changes on the horizon
Right now, the bond market is essentially saying, "We see you cutting rates, Fed, but we're not totally convinced inflation is done yet." So they're keeping mortgage rates elevated as a protective buffer.
What This Means for Boise Homebuyers
Bottom line: Mortgage rates are hovering near their lowest point in over a year. They're not the rock-bottom 2020 rates (those were a once-in-a-generation anomaly), but waiting for rates to magically drop to 4% could mean waiting indefinitely.
The real estate market rewards strategic action during "good enough" conditions—not those who wait for perfect conditions that may never materialize.
Ada County November 2025 Market Analysis: The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story
Let's dive into what actually happened in Ada County last month, because the data reveals some real opportunities for educated buyers.
Home Prices: Steady Growth with Key Trends
Median Home Sale Price: $562,000
Up 7% compared to November 2024
Up 2.2% compared to October 2025
Price increases aren't dramatic—we're seeing steady, measured growth rather than the bidding war chaos of 2021-2022.
What's driving the increase? Almost entirely resale homes aged 21-50 years. These middle-aged homes with character, updated kitchens, and mature landscaping are commanding premium prices.
Interestingly, in areas like Kuna and Meridian where fewer of these homes sold, prices increased more significantly. Classic supply and demand—scarcity drives value.
New Construction Median: $599,000
Up 15.7% year-over-year
Up 5.8% month-over-month
But here's where it gets interesting for buyers (we'll come back to this).
Sales Volume: Normal Seasonal Slowdown
Total November Sales: 690 homes
457 resale homes
233 new construction homes
Down 18.5% compared to October
This decline is completely normal. November and December always slow down as people focus on holidays and year-end obligations. This isn't a red flag—it's seasonal rhythm.
New construction sales dropped 28% from October to November, particularly in Kuna, Meridian, and Star. This means builders are sitting on inventory heading into the slower season—which creates negotiation opportunities.
Inventory: The Buyer Opportunity Window
Current Inventory: 1,897 homes
Up 24.2% compared to November 2024
54% of inventory is new construction (1,043 homes)
More homes on the market means more choices and more negotiation power for buyers.
Here's the critical insight: New construction homes are listed at an average of $788,000, but the median sale price in November was $599,000. That's a nearly $190,000 gap between asking prices and actual selling prices.
Most builders have already implemented modest price cuts averaging around $10,000, but they're testing the waters. With year-end quotas to hit and inventory to move, buyers with strong negotiation strategies have significant leverage.
Spotlight: Kuna's New Construction Value
According to the Boise Regional REALTORS® November market report, Madrone Heights subdivision in Kuna currently has 50 homes in inventory—all priced over $100,000 below the median new home sale price from November.
For six consecutive months, Kuna has maintained the lowest median price for new construction in Ada County, with Meridian ranking second. If you're relocating and looking to maximize value without sacrificing quality, Kuna deserves serious consideration.
Days on Market: Time is Your Friend
Average Days on Market: 49 days
Longest timeframe all year
Resale homes: 41 days average
New construction: 65 days average
Up 16.7% year-over-year
Is this concerning? Not at all. It's actually healthy market behavior.
Longer days on market means buyers aren't panicking. You have time to conduct thorough inspections, ask detailed questions, and negotiate terms. The frenzy of waiving inspections and writing emotional appeal letters to sellers is over.
Resale homes in Boise proper continue to move fastest with the lowest days on market in the county, though even these have been gradually increasing since June. The market is finding its natural equilibrium.
What November's Data Actually Means for Relocators and Buyers
1. This is a Negotiation Market
With increased inventory, longer days on market, and builders holding year-end inventory, you're not competing with 20 other buyers. You're not waiving contingencies or making sight-unseen offers.
You have time. You have options. You have leverage.
2. Patience is Being Rewarded
Well-priced homes in desirable locations are still moving efficiently. But overpriced listings are sitting—and sitting—until sellers adjust their expectations.
I've watched this pattern repeatedly throughout 2025: A buyer identifies a home they love, recognizes it's overpriced, exercises patience, watches it fail to sell, waits for the price reduction, then negotiates even further below the reduced asking price.
Strategic patience is paying dividends.
3. New Construction Strategy is Critical
With over 1,000 new homes in inventory and builders offering incentives, understanding the nuances of builder contracts, upgrade negotiations, and incentive structures can save buyers tens of thousands of dollars.
Most buyers walk into model homes, fall in love with the finishes, and sign whatever paperwork the builder presents. They leave enormous value on the table—in rate buy-downs, closing cost credits, upgrade negotiations, and lot premium reductions.
For remote buyers (which many relocators are), you need a comprehensive framework that accounts for:
Subdivision comparisons and value positioning
Builder reputation and warranty track records
Future resale value considerations
Community infrastructure and development plans
School quality and boundaries
Commute patterns and traffic considerations
You can't make a $600,000+ decision based on a video tour and wishful thinking.
The Big Picture: Idaho's Explosive Population Growth
Let's zoom out and look at the long-term trajectory, because this fundamentally impacts property values.
Idaho's 10-Year Growth Projection
According to 2024 census analysis:
Current Idaho population: Approximately 2 million
Projected 2034 population: 2.4 million
Net increase: 400,000 new residents in one decade
Idaho's growth rate is projected to be four times faster than the national average, with Southwestern Idaho (the Treasure Valley) accounting for the bulk of this increase.
Why This Matters for Your Investment
Yes, we're in a more balanced market compared to the chaos of 2021-2022. But demand isn't disappearing—it's just normalizing.
The wealth-building opportunity in real estate comes from buying when:
Market conditions favor buyers (like right now—negotiation power, inventory selection, reasonable timelines)
Long-term fundamentals support growth (400,000 incoming residents over the next decade)
This is that window. You're not fighting multiple offers. You can conduct thorough due diligence. But you're also positioning ahead of hundreds of thousands of people who are planning their Idaho relocation over the next ten years.
Local Market Intelligence: What Else You Should Know
Healthcare Industry Shifts
Some Treasure Valley hospitals are eliminating traveling healthcare professional contracts starting in 2026 due to escalating costs. If you're relocating for healthcare employment, this is worth understanding as it may impact local hiring dynamics.
Fire District Levy Update
Both Middleton and Star communities recently voted on a $22.225 million levy to staff and operate their new fire station. The measure required a super-majority (66.67%) but received only 50.79% support in Middleton and 59.49% in Star.
The new fire station remains unstaffed and empty. If you're considering homes in these areas, understand current emergency service locations and response times.
Boise's Global Recognition
The SPARROW Boise recently landed on Condé Nast Traveler's list of the top 50 best hotels in the world—the only Idaho hotel to make the cut.
Featuring local art throughout, local coffee service, rotating food trucks, monthly brewery partnerships, and outdoor gathering spaces, it exemplifies Boise's signature casual-meets-elevated aesthetic.
If you're planning a scouting trip to evaluate the Treasure Valley, it's an excellent base that authentically captures what makes Boise special.
Your Next Steps: Resources for Strategic Relocators
November's market data reveals a genuine window of opportunity for educated buyers. More inventory, extended decision timelines, and negotiation leverage are all in play—but only for those approaching the market strategically.
Free Resources to Guide Your Move
New Construction Playbook Comprehensive guide covering everything builders won't tell you and every question you should ask before signing.
48-Hour Boise Scouting Guide Maximize your reconnaissance trip with an itinerary designed to help you experience the Treasure Valley like a local, not a tourist.
Ready to Discuss Your Relocation Strategy?
Whether you're navigating new construction contracts, buying remotely, or trying to understand which Treasure Valley community aligns with your lifestyle and investment goals—let's talk strategy.
Sarah BreckReal Broker📞 208-918-0265
Final Thoughts: Strategy Over Timing
The most successful real estate decisions aren't about timing the market perfectly—they're about strategic execution when conditions align favorably.
Right now, we have:
Reasonable mortgage rates (near 12-month lows)
Increased inventory and selection
Negotiation leverage with motivated sellers and builders
Long-term growth fundamentals supporting value appreciation
That's not a perfect storm—it's a strategic opportunity.
The question isn't whether to wait for better conditions. It's whether you're going to make an informed, strategic move while current conditions favor buyers.
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