October 2025 Boise Market Update: Steady Prices, Buyer Leverage & Tariff Twists

Sarah Breck
Oct 23
3 min read

By Sarah Breck, Real Broker – Boise, Idaho

National Market Update: Shutdowns, Tariffs & the Fed’s Blindfold

If you’ve been feeling like the economy has had a touch of pumpkin-spice chaos lately… you’re not wrong.

The federal government officially shut down on October 1st, after Congress couldn’t agree on a spending bill. While most shutdowns are temporary, they still ripple through the economy — especially when hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed without pay.

Here’s why it matters to Boise homebuyers and sellers:During a shutdown, the government stops releasing key economic reports — including inflation and job data.

That means the Federal Reserve and mortgage investors are flying blind, which often leads to short-term rate volatility. Translation? Expect some wobbles in mortgage rates this month.

And as if that wasn’t enough spice in the latte, new tariffs on imported lumber and wooden fixtures just took effect:

10% on all timber and lumber imports
25% on cabinets and furniture (rising to 30–50% in January)

Because roughly one-third of U.S. lumber is imported (mostly from Canada), builders are bracing for cost increases heading into winter. This could nudge new construction prices slightly upward by early 2026.

Ada County Housing Market: September 2025 Stats from BRR

This market update from Boise Regional REALTORS® gives us a clearer local picture — and it’s refreshingly steady compared to the national noise.

💰 Median Sales Price

Category	September 2025	YOY Change	MOM Change
All Homes	$555,000	+3.3%	-0.9%
Resale Homes	$549,900	+2.8%	-1.8%
New Construction	$560,384	+3.5%	+1.4%

📉 Homes aged 31–50 years saw the biggest price drop, about 13% lower than August.🏡 New builds held steady, showing resilience despite rising material costs.

Takeaway: Prices are holding, not plunging — a sign of stability with a sprinkle of buyer opportunity.

🏷 Closed Sales

782 total homes sold, up 9.5% YOY, but down 5.7% MOM
Younger resale homes (under 10 years) dropped 19% month-over-month, especially in Meridian (-27%)

➡️ Those homes took longer to sell (around 48 days vs. 30 the previous month) and sold slightly below asking — giving buyers a window to negotiate.

📉 Pending Sales

1,136 pending sales, down 6.4% YOY, flat month-over-month
Over half of these homes are set to close next month — many at prices below their original list.

That subtle shift suggests negotiation is back, especially on listings sitting longer than 30 days.

🏗 Inventory

2,192 active listings — up 27% YOY
Half are new construction, primarily in Meridian
Many show price cuts since original listing

Inventory has grown but remains unbalanced. If you’re searching for move-in-ready resales in Boise’s core, those are still competitive. But if you’re flexible on location or looking at new builds, your options have multiplied.

⏱ Days on Market

Category	Avg. Days on Market	YOY Change	MOM Change
All Homes	44 days	+4.8%	+7.3%
Resale	36 days	+12.5%	+16.1%
New Homes	59 days	-3.3%	-4.8%

Boise had the fastest sales in Ada County at just 24 days on average, while Meridian’s newer resales slowed down considerably.

📊 Current Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 3.0 months — still slightly in seller territory, but edging closer to balance (4–6 months).

Local Boise Buzz

Here’s what’s making headlines around the Treasure Valley:

🏫 Idaho College of Osteopathic Medicine (ICOM) is for sale — its investors, including Rice University, plan to sell within 6–12 months.
⚽ Athletic Club Boise broke a national record with 6,250+ season ticket deposits before its first game.
🏟 Nampa is opening bids to sell the Ford Idaho Center, starting at $75 million.
☀️ rPlus Energies broke ground on Pleasant Valley Solar 2, a $100M project powering Meta’s data center in Kuna.

In short: growth, innovation, and Boise-style hustle continue — even as national uncertainty hums in the background.

My Take

We’re not in a crash — we’re in a correction that’s becoming a balance.Buyers are regaining confidence, sellers are getting realistic, and builders are adjusting pricing ahead of the winter lull.

With pending homes showing price flexibility and inventory leaning new-construction heavy, it’s a golden window to make smart moves before interest rates or tariffs shift again.

Let’s Talk Strategy

If you’re wondering whether it’s the right time to buy, sell, or build — let’s chat.I’ll walk you through your numbers, builder incentives, and local trends so you can move with confidence (and maybe even a little swagger).