Boise Real Estate Market Update – January 2026
- Sarah Breck
- Jan 21
- 4 min read
What actually happened in the Boise and Treasure Valley housing market—and what it means heading into 2026.
Everyone Is Waiting. Here’s What Actually Happened.
Rates are supposed to drop. Prices are supposed to crash. Boise is supposed to slow down.
And yet—none of that is exactly what December delivered.
Instead, we saw stability from the Federal Reserve, strategic pricing shifts from builders, continued population growth across the Treasure Valley, and one of the strongest new‑construction months of the year in Ada County.
Let’s walk through what actually happened in December 2025—and how buyers and sellers should be thinking about 2026.
Interest Rates: Slower, Steadier, and Very On‑Brand
The Federal Reserve met in December and did what it tends to do best: talk at length, move cautiously, and avoid surprises.
At the meeting, policymakers approved a quarter‑point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a 3.5%–3.75% range. The more important takeaway, however, came from the meeting minutes released afterward.
Several Fed participants suggested that after this move, it may be appropriate to hold rates steady for a period of time in 2026. In other words—less urgency, more patience.
Markets are already pricing this in. Heading into the January 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, prediction markets show a strong expectation that rates will remain unchanged.
For buyers and sellers, this signals a shift away from dramatic rate speculation and toward something more practical: rate stability.
And in real estate, stability is often more useful than volatility.
Boise Real Estate Market Update: What the Numbers Say
Median Sales Price
The median sales price in Ada County in December was $525,000, down modestly month‑over‑month and slightly year‑over‑year.
This softening was not evenly distributed across the market.
The most significant price declines occurred in new construction, particularly in Kuna, Meridian, and Star—the same areas where the majority of new homes sold. In fact, 77% of all new‑construction sales in December occurred in these cities.
This pricing adjustment is a large reason the overall median declined.
Homes Sold
In December:
691 homes closed
286 were new construction
405 were resale homes
New construction made up 41% of all sales, the highest monthly share of new‑home sales in all of 2025.
Buyers did not leave the market—they shifted toward opportunities.
Pending Sales & Inventory: Where Leverage Lives
Pending sales offer a look at where the market is heading.
In December:
901 homes were pending
62% of pending sales were new construction
Of those pending new homes:
40% are located in Meridian
44% are scheduled to close in January 2026
Inventory declined month‑over‑month to 1,596 homes, bringing Ada County to 2.2 months of supply. This remains a seller‑leaning market—but with important nuance.
More than half of the homes added to inventory in December were new builds, and a majority of homes sitting on the market longer than 50 days were also new construction.
This is where negotiation power exists.
Employment & Economic Context: Growth With Structure
Housing demand doesn’t exist in isolation.
Southwestern Idaho continues to outperform the rest of the state economically:
The regional labor force grew faster than the statewide average
Employment growth is keeping pace with population increases
Unemployment ticked up slightly in the region, which is common during periods of in‑migration. Many relocations involve a lag between arrival and employment, particularly as hiring timelines lengthen.
The takeaway is simple: jobs are keeping up with growth—a critical foundation for housing stability.
Growth You Can See: Why These Headlines Matter
Denton Apartments – Boise Bench
Boise recently opened the Denton Apartments, a 190‑unit, four‑story apartment community on the Boise Bench.
This project includes:
19 units dedicated to families experiencing homelessness, in partnership with Our Path Home
171 units serving households earning up to 80% of the area median income
The development received $6.7 million in Emergency Rental Assistance Program funding, alongside state and private partners.
Located near St. Alphonsus Regional Medical Center and key retail corridors, Denton Apartments reflects Boise’s focus on workforce and transitional housing near employment centers—a growing priority as affordability discussions move beyond price alone and toward total cost of living.
Healthcare Expansion – Caldwell & the West Valley
St. Alphonsus opened a 60,000‑square‑foot Health Plaza in Caldwell, housing 30 physicians across more than 15 specialties.
This facility focuses on primary care, complementing West Valley Medical Center rather than replacing emergency services.
Caldwell’s population has grown 20.3% since 2020, adding more than 12,000 residents and ranking among the fastest‑growing cities in the country.
Healthcare expansion typically follows sustained population growth, making this a confirmation—not a prediction—of long‑term demand.
Infrastructure Funding: Quiet Signals, Long‑Term Impact
Southwestern Idaho also received approximately $4.3 million in water and infrastructure grants, supporting irrigation districts, municipalities, and conservation efforts.
Water infrastructure plays a foundational role in Idaho’s growth capacity. Continued investment here supports future development approvals and reinforces existing communities.
These signals rarely make headlines—but they matter.
New Construction & Cost Pressures
According to national housing analysis, tariffs were one of the most impactful real‑estate events of 2025.
Builders faced increased costs for materials such as lumber, steel, drywall, appliances, and countertops—adding an estimated $9,200 per new home.
Rather than triggering price collapses, these pressures led to:
Strategic price adjustments
Builder incentives
Selective development pacing
In today’s Boise real estate market update, how you buy often matters more than when.
Final Takeaway: A Selective Market
This market isn’t frozen. It’s not overheated. And it’s not falling apart.
It’s selective.
Buyers who understand inventory pockets, builder incentives, and rate strategy are making confident decisions—particularly in new construction.
Sellers who price intentionally and align with buyer expectations are still moving homes.
Everyone else is still waiting.
Planning a Move to Boise?
If you’re relocating or planning ahead, two resources can help you navigate this market with clarity:
Boise Relocation Playbook – A practical guide to neighborhoods, pricing dynamics, and what out‑of‑state buyers consistently underestimate
48‑Hour Boise Scouting Guide – Designed for short visits so you can see the right areas and avoid common mistakes
Comments